AUKUS effects on ASEAN, QUAD, and NATO: Pakistani repercussions:
The new three-way strategic alliance between Australia, the UK, and the US is known as AUKUS. The alliance’s foundation is developing a class of nuclear-powered submarines and cooperative efforts in the Indo-Pacific region. Because of this, Australia will have to cancel its agreement with France in 2016 to build 12 diesel-electric submarines to replace its fleet of Collins submarines. AUKUS effects on ASEAN, QUAD and NATO. NATO is an Intergovernmental military alliance between thirty member states.
AUKUS’s initial endeavour will be to assist Australia in building a fleet of nuclear-powered, conventionally armed submarines. The QUAD was addressed by Morrison and Biden, albeit they were vague on specifics, and the three chiefs of state underlined their desire to continue working with respective friends and groups alongside AUKUS. Moreover, NATO is stepping up to keep people safe from the upcoming conflicts.
It indicates that China will have to contend with a potent new defence alliance in the Indo-Pacific, with the support of neighbours like Japan. Additionally, it confirms that even after Brexit, the US prefers to work with the UK rather than the EU as its primary military ally. Additionally, it offers Biden direction for his shift to Asia after Afghanistan. He will host Quad’s first in-person summit on September 24. The Quad is an alliance of Japan, the US, Australia, and India.
Only weeks after the US withdrew from Afghanistan and the Taliban seized power, the AUKUS pact became official. The date of this agreement is particularly significant since it was made when everyone was worried about the US’s influence on the area’s stability.
The establishment of this partnership proves that the Biden administration will continue to meddle in international affairs and behave as a global policeman, much like its predecessor. Although the US must maintain its status as a superpower, this development may not be in the best interests of average Americans as their money will still be used to fund overseas activities.
In many regions of the world, this agreement has caused alarm. One of the groups that this agreement may directly affect is ASEAN. Different ASEAN nations have reacted differently to this agreement. While nations like Malaysia and Indonesia have voiced their worries over AUKUS, other ASEAN countries like Singapore have welcomed this agreement and stated that it would help to maintain regional peace.
ASEAN Led Architecture:
To address the concerns of the ASEAN nations, the US and Australian ministers jointly released a statement to reaffirm their support for the ASEAN-led architecture.
According to the Indian Foreign Ministry, AUKUS will not affect how QUAD operates and is irrelevant. Some contend that this is untrue and that the development of AUKUS will weaken the position of QUAD. The major goals of both coalitions practically coincide if we look at their justifications. Thus, it may be said that AUKUS and QUAD are complimentary, but if the former proves to be more successful than the latter, QUAD’s function would likely diminish. Following the founding of AUKUS, NATO was the organisation that experienced the greatest commotion. The leaders of Europe have vehemently denounced this new alliance.
Australia’s Unilateral termination of deal with France:
One of the leading causes of these worries is Australia’s unilateral termination of its deal with France. The world is witnessing intense friction between the two NATO partners, the US and France, resulting from this new alliance. The possibilities of this unique alliance pushing France toward its former friend Russia are slim. NATO will become the most harmed organisation due to this deal if the concerns of European nations are not promptly addressed.
In Oct 2020, the Abraham Accord between Israel, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan came into being. The Hormuz Strait may be blocked or choked by the quadrilateral company. Safe Sea Lines of Communication are essential for Pakistani trade (Slots). Thanks to this deal, Tel Aviv will have the chance to enter the Strait of Hormuz and appear as a ghost in IOR for Pakistan.
If such a situation were to emerge, the threat posed by Israel in the IOR might negatively affect Pakistan and its neighbours Iran, China, and Russia, posing a threat to their strategic interests. In the event of a conflict, Pakistan will suffer greatly.
Israel and India are also connected technologically, strategically, and economically. India will be able to meddle as a result. Pakistan needs a secure BRI connection to exploit SLOCs effectively, and the maritime environment has become a concern. Pakistan will need more regional actors to protect itself because it depends on China.
India’s military system is being developed and overhauled due to the US alliance, which includes the 2+2 agreement, LEMOA, and COMCASA, and the US arming Australia with nuclear submarines.
They were freezing $10 billion in Afghan assets, creating a significant security void. The impending danger posed by TTP, Daesh. These secular trends are hostile to Pakistan and in favour of India. Through the Aukus platform, India might take advantage of this chance to undermine Pakistan. Once they have matured, these risks might disrupt the BRI connection by becoming unstable.
Waseem Abbas writes this Article. The writer is graduated in International Relations from AJK University and Research Intern at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
His area of Interest includes Nuclear Power, Arms Control and Disarmament, South Asian Politics and Global Power.