Bangladesh Protests: PM Hasina’s Ouster and Upcoming Challenges

Bangladesh’s embattled prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, fled the country on Aug. 5, 2024, after weeks of protests that have resulted in scores of deaths.

Her departure is a landmark moment, but one that has left the South Asian nation facing a power vacuum into which the Army – for the time being, at least – has stepped.

Longstanding discontent about a quota system that reserved 56% of government jobs in Bangladesh for certain groups, including 30% for the descendants of independence warriors who fought in the 1971 War of Independence, is the root cause of the protests.

For the nation’s sizable youth population, many of whom are unemployed, this quota system has proven to be a significant obstacle to highly sought-after civil service employment.

The fact that so many of those quota jobs were awarded to members of the ruling Awami League party had also made it a contentious issue.

In 2018, Hasina eliminated the entire quota system due to tremendous pressure from a previous student campaign on the subject. However, the nation’s high court declared that action unlawful in June 2024, which sparked further nationwide protests.

Then, in July, a number of staff and student walkouts occurred at Bangladesh’s public universities over proposed pension reforms that, if enacted, would require wage deductions.

The demonstrations were calm at first, but tensions were heightened by Hasina’s inflammatory speech in which she implied that the students were “rajakaar,” a term used to describe pro-Pakistan collaborators during Bangladesh’s War of Independence.

With police assistance, the Bangladesh Chhatra League, the Awami League’s armed branch, started using tear gas and live ammunition against students.

Additionally deployed was the Rapid Action Battalion, a contentious paramilitary unit with a track record of enforced disappearances, extrajudicial executions, and torture.

More people joined the demonstrations after a video of one of the first people slain, a university student named Abu Sayeed, went viral online.

This prompted police and armed groups to launch another brutal crackdown. At least 32 minors were among the estimated 266 individuals murdered during the protests, the most of them were students.

The government shut down telephones and the internet, instituted a curfew, and closed colleges and universities. In the meantime, student leaders were taken into custody and forced to revoke their demands.

However, this merely resulted in the announcement of a movement for complete noncooperation and a large-scale protest movement calling for Hasina’s resignation right away.

The prime minister resigned and fled the country as thousands of demonstrators assembled for a protracted march to Dhaka in violation of the curfew.

Although Bangladesh’s GDP has increased during Hasina’s leadership, many Bangladeshis have not benefited economically from this.

Tension has persisted due to a lack of opportunities, rising youth unemployment rates, and skyrocketing inflation. Meanwhile, government officials have been plagued by bribery, nepotism, and money laundering scandals, even though the Awami League has declared a zero-tolerance policy against corruption.

Additionally, the nation’s democracy has been undermined by the Awami League since its overwhelming victory in 2008.

For instance, the government terminated a deal in 2011 that permitted a technocratic, 90-day caretaker government to conduct elections and supervise power transitions.

Dissent suppression has also increased. Human rights advocates, campaigners, and opposition leaders are increasingly being harassed and arrested.

In the meantime, any form of criticism of the administration, including satire and posts on social media, has been made illegal.

Will Bangladesh’s political dynasties come to an end with Hasina’s departure?

Hasina’s resignation marks the end of Awami League rule in Bangladesh, at least temporarily. Bangladesh and other South Asian nations have been significantly influenced by political dynasties.

Therefore, it is remarkable that the Awami League was rejected, and that many people are also rejecting other well-known political parties, such as the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, Jamaat-i-Islami, and the Jatiya Party.

Undoubtedly, these well-established groups will attempt to reorganize. Given popular opinion, the Awami League might not be able to organize well in the near future, but the others will try their hardest to take part in the anticipated upcoming elections.

For the time being, Bangladesh might have a chance to have new faces and voices in politics, possibly from the student movement.

The army has had a significant influence on Bangladesh’s political development ever since the country gained its independence. Bangladesh saw at least 29 military coups and counter-coups between 1975 and 2011.

Additionally, it was under direct military control from 1977 to 1981 and again from 1981 to 1990. The army has taken temporary control of Bangladesh, which is hardly surprising considering how frequently it meddles in the political affairs of the nation.

However, student leaders have stated unequivocally that they oppose military participation in politics. Army chief of staff General Waker-uz-Zaman has reportedly responded to this appeal by promising demonstrators that the army would comply with their requests.

However, it is unclear if the military would fulfill its commitments and cede complete control to a civilian interim government.

It is premature to make predictions about Bangladesh’s future because the situation is quite unstable and changing every minute.

The millions of demonstrators who contributed to the overthrow of Hasina have expressed relief and joy at her sudden departure.

Leaders of protests have articulated a distinct vision for a democratic, inclusive government free from corruption.

A temporary government that is established without their participation and influence is what they oppose.

A list of candidates that student leaders would want to see in the interim government has been compiled.

Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel winner, has agreed to serve as principal adviser. Leaders of Jamaat-i-Islami and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party are competing for posts in the temporary administration.

However, political changes are very difficult and unstable. The Hindu community has been attacked, and there have been cases of violence, arson, and looting all around the nation.

Much of the violence, which is said to be committed in an effort to undermine the protest movement, is attributed to the armed wings of the Bangladesh Chhatra League and the Jamaat-i-Islami.

As a result, the public and students have taken action to defend places of worship for minorities.

In a situation that is unstable, rumors and disinformation operations will undoubtedly have a considerable impact.

The nation’s economy has suffered greatly as a result of the political unrest and military lockdown, and this will also need to be addressed.

Considering Bangladesh’s regional geopolitics and the global economy, the United States, the European Union, and China are among the key allies and international donors who are also anticipating what would happen next.

This article is written by Mr. Asif Ali Shah who is graduated in International Relations from the SZABIST University, Islamabad. He is a Geopolitical Content Writer on South Asia.